Our own behavioral finance expert has decided to join the crowd and offer a list of forecasts for the year ahead.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Selasa, 31 Desember 2013
Senin, 30 Desember 2013
Bold stock market predictions for 2014
Bold stock market predictions for 2014
Well, it's that time again. It is time for every market prognosticator within arm's reach of a Bloomberg terminal to tell us what to expect of the market in the year to come.
What is most amazing to me at this point is that anyone is still listening to the tripe produced by this perennial rite of passage. More amazing still is that financial experts, otherwise intelligent people, continue to make bold claims in the face of a growing body of evidence that says that it's nearly impossible to do.
Philip E. Tetlock, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, wrote an excellent book on the difficulties inherent in political prognostication that have sound application to the world of finance. Mr. Tetlock found that expert judgment was typically outperformed by simple statistical algorithms and that "dart-throwing monkeys” could do better than many experts.
Advertisement
What's more, it has also been found that those who “call” a large, once-in-a-lifetime event are typically worse at predicting subsequent events. Consider the perma-bear who fancies himself a watchman on the tower, forever griping about the woeful state of the economy. Well, in 2008, he got lucky and the world took notice, elevating him to rock star status and looking to him for future predictions. Such one trick ponies are not true experts or gifted seers of market events. They are simply people with an extremist narrative that happens to coincide with actual events every generation or so. This is the part where I remind you that even a stopped clock is right twice a day and that a certain octopus showed some promise at picking World Cup winners for a time.
But who am I to descontruct this time-honored tradition? Instead of beating them I've decided to join them and create my own list of forecasts for the year to follow. In 2014, I predict that …
• Some political hiccup will send the market into a panic, only to have it return to normal days later.
• People will continue to think that they should go it alone. After all, they are better investors than the rest of us.
• An IPO company will emerge that is going to revolutionize everything but hasn't figured out how to monetize it yet.
• Greed will continue to entice some poor investors to make bad decisions with products that seem too good to be true.
• Investors will fail to save adequately and continue to sacrifice tomorrow for today.
• The 24/7 financial media will care more about creating a frenzy of clicks, views and likes than serving the best interests of the American investing public.
• Emotion will trump logic as investors trade momentary comfort for long-term security.
• People will measure their performance relative to a market index and not what is required to meet their personal financial goals.
• Investors will trade 4% or more in returns on bad behavior in a misguided effort to achieve 2% or less “alpha.”
While the specific movements of the market may be hard to forecast, the behavior of market participants is infinitely more predictable. The new year may not be the one in which your portfolio doubles on a strong bull market, but it can be the one in which you avoid the myopic decisions that are the true cancer of most portfolios.
Dr. Daniel Crosby is a behavioral finance expert who works with organizations to develop products and messaging to maximize positive investment outcomes. Among his current collaborations is "Personal Benchmark", a system of embedded behavioral finance delivered by Brinker Capital.
.
Continue Reading
Blackstone preps nontraded real estate fund for the fee-only crowd
Fund comes with no sales load but 12(b)-1 fee, performance fee and expense ratio
Advertisement
Advertisement
@IN Wire
Dec 30 07:03PM
#Finra intends to step up policing of 401(k)-to-#IRA rollovers for conflicts of interest. http://t.co/N36gC6NEav @newsfromIN
Dec 30 06:50PM
What to watch for in financial-adviser recruiting in 2014: http://t.co/IjNFu0czwv @trhunnicutt @newsfromIN
Most Watched Video
2:06Using alternative investments in place of bonds in a portfolio Dorothy Weaver Founder & CEO, Collins Capital
2:50Why policy changes are needed to overcome slow economic growth James Glassman Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
Upcoming Events
Wednesday, Jan 8 Conference: 2014 Retirement Income Summit
Webcast: Recruiting in 2014: Risks, Challenges and Opportunities
Tuesday, Jan 14Webcast: Large Cap Value: The Right Time for a Focused Strategy
Monday, May 12 - Tuesday, May 13Conference: 2014 Retirement Income Summit
Generate. Sustain. Protect.
Credit: RSS for Investments
An alternative bond strategy that contains no bonds
“The best hedge of a stock portfolio is something that by design moves in the opposite direction of the stock market,” says Sungarden's Isbitts
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
Gold drops, headed to worst year since 1981
Some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid a rally in equities and an improving economy that prompted the Federal Reserve to pare its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
Gold hits the skids and miners dig deep
Today's Breakfast with Benjamin shines a light on the slide in gold and its impact on miners, Volcker rule tweaks, Nasdaq settling its Facebook IPO glitch, the expected drop in oil prices, and quotes to ponder
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
Investors go berserk over Bitcoin trading platform
Also in today's Breakfast with Benjamin: Getting contrarian in 2014, El-Erian picks apart the Fed's taper plans, Morningstar warns against timing this market, more Obamacare taxes coming, and companies that got social media right
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
SAC's Martoma: U.S. must disclose evidence in his favor
Former SAC Capital Advisors LP portfolio manager Mathew Martoma asked a judge to force the government to turn over evidence that he says can help him beat insider trading charges as his case goes to trial next month.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
Nontraded REITs set up for strong year but speed bumps loom
With heady momentum after a record year of sales, nontraded REITs are expected to be popular with advisers and investors again in 2014 but new regs and climbing interest rates could dampen enthusiasm.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
Beyond black box investing: Fund uses database four times the size of Wikipedia
The BlackRock Global Long/Short Equity Fund is a computer nerd's dream and, with its ability to zig when the rest of the market zags, a potentially valuable addition to a portfolio.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
Big PE firms facing $1B settlement in collusion case
Plus: Asian markets are charging, hitting a year-end financial high note, how to use bond ETFs, Amex gets stung, and apps for getting fit. Check out Breakfast with Benjamin.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Credit: RSS for Investments
An alternative bond strategy that contains no bonds
An alternative bond strategy that contains no bonds
“The best hedge of a stock portfolio is something that by design moves in the opposite direction of the stock market,” says Sungarden's Isbitts
Dec 30, 2013 @ 11:11 am (Updated 2:24 pm) EST
Credit: RSS for Investments
Gold drops, headed to worst year since 1981
Gold fell in New York Monday for the first time in four sessions, set for its biggest annual loss in three decades, as an improving economy cut demand for a protection of wealth. Silver futures retreated.
After having slid to $1,186 an ounce on Dec. 19, near this year's low set in June, bullion rebounded to a one-week high of $1,218.90 on Dec. 27. Global equities traded near the highest level since 2007 before reports this week that may show improvements in U.S. housing and manufacturing.
Gold tumbled 28% this year, set for the worst annual plunge since 1981. Some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid a rally in equities and an improving economy that prompted the Federal Reserve to pare its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by bullion dropped 33 percent this year to the least since 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Advertisement
“The market is fearing the impact of tapering,” Peter Fertig, the owner of Quantitative Commodity Research Ltd. in Hainburg, Germany, said Monday. “You have firmer equity markets. There's currently no crisis and nothing that would induce investors to rush into gold.”
Bullion for February delivery fell 0.9 percent to $1,203.60 by 7:36 a.m. Monday on the Comex in New York. Futures trading volume was 29 percent below the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Gold for immediate delivery slipped 0.7 percent to $1,204.49 in London.
FED STIMULUS
The Fed will probably reduce its bond purchases in $10 billion increments over the next seven meetings before ending the program in December 2014, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month.
Gold is set for the first annual drop in 13 years. Holdings in gold-backed ETPs declined 4.9 metric tons to 1,767.1 tons on Dec. 27, the lowest since November 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“The perennial bulls have pulled their horns in,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief executive of Barratt's Bulletin in Sydney. “The underlying theme has been the unanticipated weight of selling from the ETF market.”
Silver futures for March delivery dropped 2% to $19.655 an ounce in New York, tumbling 35% this year for the biggest slump since 1981. Palladium futures for March delivery lost 0.1% to $711.10 an ounce. Platinum for April delivery declined 1.1% to $1,364 an ounce.
(Bloomberg News)
Continue Reading
Investors turn to stocks at the right time
ETFs and mutual funds take in most cash since 2000 as S&P 500 surges
Credit: RSS for Investments
Gold hits the skids and miners dig deep
Gold hits the skids and miners dig deep
Plus: Volcker rule tweaks, Nasdaq settles Facebook IPO glitch, oil prices to fall again in 2014, and quotes to ponder
Dec 30, 2013 @ 7:45 am (Updated 7:55 am) EST
- Gold miners see growth reversing on falling gold prices. Bracing for asset writedowns
- Regulators are finessing the Volcker rule to appease banks. Certain hedging strategies will be allowed
- Nasdaq will shell out $41.6 million on New Year's Eve to victims of the botched Facebook IPO. Market makers say the glitch cost them $500 million
- Analysts say 2014 will be another weak year for oil prices. Global supply is expanding
- Are any healthy people signing up for Obamacare? White House won't say. Sign-ups vs. actual enrollments
- Fifteen business quotes pulled from the movies. ”I'm a businessman. I'm anything I need to be at any time.”
- The best and worst quotes of the year. ”What's fair and unfair is kind of an interesting debate I have at 10 o'clock at night by myself.”
Jeff Benjamin covers investment strategies in his award-winning column, Investment Insights, and also dives deep into the minds of leading portfolio managers in his regular column, Portfolio Manager Perspectives.
Advertisement
Advertisement
@IN Wire
Dec 30 07:32AM
Most-Accurate Oil Forecasters See Second Year of Losses http://t.co/b7V9T8RlYi via @BloombergNews
Most Watched Video
2:06Using alternative investments in place of bonds in a portfolio Dorothy Weaver Founder & CEO, Collins Capital
2:50Why policy changes are needed to overcome slow economic growth James Glassman Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
Upcoming Events
Wednesday, Jan 8 Conference: 2014 Retirement Income Summit
Webcast: Recruiting in 2014: Risks, Challenges and Opportunities
Tuesday, Jan 14Webcast: Large Cap Value: The Right Time for a Focused Strategy
Monday, May 12 - Tuesday, May 13Conference: 2014 Retirement Income Summit
Generate. Sustain. Protect.
Credit: RSS for Investments
Sabtu, 28 Desember 2013
"Clash of Clans: You and This Army (Official TV Commercial)" dari Clash of
|
